Nowcasting of Weather Parameters Impacting Solar PV Output Using Grey System Model

Objectives: To nowcast the weather parameters having a direct impact on power output of solar PV installations, with high prediction accuracy and limited quantity past data. Methods: In this study, GM (1,1) model Fourier series error residuals has been proposed used for forecasting namely Ambient temperature, Solar Photo Voltaic Module Irradiation. Real-time data showing suitability to parameters. The existing models like Autoregression Double Exponential Smoothing are applied same prove superiority residuals. Findings: It is found that an apt nowcasting predicted result real-time ascertains appropriateness nowcasting. precision verified by comparing it other time such as algorithms. Novelty: Using novel when compared algorithms because accuracy, many require huge volume involve complex computation. On hand, requires only measure involves simple Moreover, significantly higher than models. Keywords: Grey Theory; Renewable Energy; Installation; Auto Regression;